Let’s discuss the Monte Carlo Simulation’s use in determining the project schedule. Suppose that you have three activities with the following estimates (in months):

From the above table you can see that, according to the PERT estimate, you can complete these activities in 17.5 months.

In the best case, you can complete them in 16 months, and in the worst case, 21 months.

Now, if we run the Monte Carlo Simulation for these tasks, five hundred times, it will show us the following results:

(Please note that the above data is for illustration purpose only and it is not from an actual simulation test.)

You can see that there is a:

*2% chance of completing the project in 16 months

*8% chance of completing the project in 17 months

*55% chance of completing the project in 18 months

*70% chance of completing the project in 19 months

*95% chance of completing the project in 20 months

*100% chance of completing the project in 21 months

This technique provides you with a more in-depth analysis of your data, and you can make a better-informed decision.